Practice 02 · Transaction & Asset Red-Teaming
The other side of the trade, argued properly.
Before an investment committee commits, we build the strongest case against the deal: the bear case the model leaves out, tested against base rates and the physical asset, so the committee sees the downside priced before the upside is sold. Independent of the deal team, the adviser and the outcome.
What we test
Four places a resource deal usually breaks, each rebuilt independently.
Nothing is reviewed from the seller’s numbers.
The thesis
Supply · demand · price deck
The market case behind the valuation: the supply-demand balance, the price deck and the point where consensus is doing the work instead of evidence.
We deliver
Contrarian thesis note · price-deck stress test
The asset
Pit / wellhead to port
Resource basis, ramp-up profile, capex and schedule, and the logistics chain to market, each set against the base rate for comparable projects.
We deliver
Red-team teardown · base-rate dossier
The structure
JV · offtake · financing
Who controls what, who carries which risk, and whether the financing survives the downside case rather than the base case.
We deliver
Bankability review · governance map
The jurisdiction
Fiscal · licence · counterparty
Fiscal terms, licensing and the host-state relationship as they bear on this transaction. The full jurisdictional practice sits under Resource Risk & Governance.
We deliver
Jurisdictional review · licence exposure register
How it runs
Three steps, built around the committee date, not a consulting calendar.
01
Brief
The deal materials and the one question the committee must answer.
02
Teardown
Independent rebuild of the assumptions that carry the valuation, tested against base rates.
03
Committee
A written IC memo, and the challenge argued in the room where the decision is made.
Who commissions it
Funds, lenders, investors and operator boards commission it.
PE & infrastructure funds
Investment committees underwriting resource risk.
Project finance & DFIs
Lenders testing bankability before close.
Institutional investors
Allocators taking a position in a resource name or fund.
Operator boards
A build or acquisition case pressure-tested before capital is committed.
The method, applied in public
Two published Field Notes show the teardown at work.
A transaction and a strategy, each torn down on public information.
11 Sept 2026 · Europe · Oil & Gas
The €300 Million Confession
Saipem and Subsea7 published a €300m annual synergy built on fleet optimisation and reduced bidding overlap. Twelve months later Brussels opened Phase II on the same industrial facts, then stopped the clock.
€300m Synergy · Phase II suspended
07 Aug 2026 · West Africa · Manganese
Eighty-Three Days
Eramet’s strategy document could not survive its own results: €672m of losses in six quarters against €441m of equity.
€672m Lost · €441m equity left
Before the committee date, not after it.
Commission a red-team review