Practice 03 · Resource Risk & Governance

The risks that sit outside the model.

We find the political, jurisdictional, governance and supply-chain risks a valuation treats as a footnote until they become the valuation, and gate them down to the few a board can act on, each with an owner and the date that closes it. Documentation is not control.

Commissioned bySovereign-wealth funds and state holdings, operator boards, and investment committees.

What we cover

Four domains where value is lost to risks the plan never priced.

Political & sovereign
Transition · nationalism · renegotiation
Changes of government, resource nationalism and the renegotiation of terms once capital is sunk and leverage has shifted to the host state.
We deliver
Sovereign risk map · scenario brief
Licensing & jurisdiction
Permits · fiscal regime · export controls
Cross-border licensing, permitting and fiscal stability, including extraterritorial rules that reach an asset from outside its own jurisdiction.
We deliver
Jurisdictional review · licence exposure register
Governance & assurance
Reporting · assurance · board oversight
The gap between what is reported and what is controlled: reporting lines, assurance and decision rights, and whether the board is told about the risk the asset actually carries.
We deliver
Governance review · board risk brief
Supply-chain sovereignty
Chokepoints · processing · concentration
Where processing, logistics or a single counterparty controls the route to market, and what happens to the asset when that control is used.
We deliver
Chokepoint map · exposure assessment
From register to decision

Three steps take the register down to the entries a board can act on.

A risk register without a gate only ever grows.

01
Scan
Trends and events, each anchored to a dated, attributable source rather than to a forecast.
02
Gate
Four binding gates: materiality, uncertainty, horizon and evidence. Each failure is dropped, refused, or routed to the line register or the watchlist.
03
Own
What survives gets an owner, a treatment and the date that closes it, so it can leave the register.
The method, published in full

A gated model for emerging risk in global mining: ten implications in, two out.

Our Context, Framework, Quantified Impact method, executed and published. Six trends scanned, ten implications evidenced, four gates applied. Two entries survive.

6
Trends scanned
10
Implications
8
To the line
2
Survive
Read the model  →
Cycle 1, 2026  ·  Information cut-off 11 September 2026  ·  Twelve pages  ·  Seventeen sources, fifteen open access
Cover of the gated model: six trends scanned, ten implications, eight to the line, two qualify as emerging.Scope and method page: what the register covers and the six feeds with their cadences.The two entries that survive the gates, with owner, treatment and closing trigger.Ten mining implications, each with a dated anchor, horizon, confidence and status.
The method, applied in public

Two published Field Notes on risk the market priced late.

Documentation mistaken for control, and ownership mistaken for control of a market.

21 Jul 2026 · Latin America · Risk
The $100 Billion Illusion of Control
The confusion of documentation with control, priced in lives and market cap.
$19bn Erased in one session
27 Jul 2026 · SE Asia · Nickel
6% to 60%. Control not included.
Owning a market is not controlling it: supply sovereignty, and who actually took the margin.
60% Of world supply

Jurisdictions where the bench has worked are shown on the coverage map →

Priced before it becomes the valuation.
Discuss a risk mandate