Who we work for · Sovereigns
For states deciding which part of the value chain is worth holding.
Sovereign-wealth funds, national resource companies, ministries and state holdings bring us in on strategic exposure, resource sovereignty and the terms a host state can hold once the capital is sunk.
Sovereign-wealth funds · National resource companies · Ministries & state holdings
The practices sovereigns draw on.
Practice 01
Strategic Mandates
Where should the capital go, in what order, and should we make or buy?
Decision memoMake-or-buy dossierRisk-adjusted modelBoard paper
The practice →
Practice 03
Resource Risk & Governance
Which risks sit outside the model, and which can the board act on?
Sovereign risk mapJurisdictional reviewGovernance reviewChokepoint map
The practice →
The method, applied in public
Field Notes on the decisions sovereigns face.
31 Oct 2026 · Africa · Aluminium
Mozal · Guinea · Indonesia · Zimbabwe · Ajaokuta
Mandates Without Megawatts
Governments from Conakry to Lilongwe are ordering miners to process at home. A smelter needs about 500 MW of firm power, and the record shows the decision that matters is who owns that power and the capital behind it.
Make-or-Buy Series · 91 sources →
23 Oct 2026 · West Africa · Iron Ore
Simandou · Rio Tinto · Baowu · Guinea
The Fiscal Return Behind Guinea's $200 Billion Bet
Guinea's Simandou 2040 programme is costed at US$200 billion. The official fiscal model puts the state's revenue from Simandou at about US$20 billion over the same fifteen years, most of it after 2030.
Risk Series · 48 sources →
08 Jul 2026 · West Africa · Steel
Ajaokuta Steel · Nigeria
$8bn spent. Not a tonne of steel made.
Forty-seven years and more than $8bn after construction began, Ajaokuta has never lit its blast furnace. That record is the base rate every West African build case should price.
Make-or-Buy Series · 6 sources →
27 Jul 2026 · SE Asia · Nickel
Indonesia · Tsingshan
6% to 60%. Control not included.
Indonesia rebuilt the world's nickel supply in a decade. It also broke the price, handed the margin to Chinese capital and coal, and built a machine the West's green rules now exclude. Owning a market is not controlling it.
Value-Chain Series · 20 sources →
01 Sept 2026 · Latin America · Oil
Venezuela · PDVSA · ExxonMobil
Sixty-Five Billion
Washington announced control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan crude. The deal's own revenue arithmetic sells eleven billion, and producing 65 billion inside the term would need 7.12m bpd sustained.
Risk Series · 16 sources →