Field Notes/Risk Series
Field Notes · Risk Series

Risks a valuation treats as a footnote until they become the valuation: sovereign, counterparty, schedule and control.

Eight Field Notes in this series, newest first.

26 Oct 2026 · China · Copper
Maike Metals · He Jinbi · Xiamen Xinda · ICBC
RMB67.8 Billion of Claims: The Fall of He Jinbi
Maike Metals handled a quarter of China's copper imports on a trading margin of about one per cent. Its founder has been sentenced to life, according to Bloomberg, and has appealed. The filings show who was paid, and who was handed trust units carried at zero.
Risk Series · 32 sources →
23 Oct 2026 · West Africa · Iron Ore
Simandou · Rio Tinto · Baowu · Guinea
The Fiscal Return Behind Guinea's $200 Billion Bet
Guinea's Simandou 2040 programme is costed at US$200 billion. The official fiscal model puts the state's revenue from Simandou at about US$20 billion over the same fifteen years, most of it after 2030.
Risk Series · 48 sources →
18 Oct 2026 · SE Asia · Gas & LNG
Eni · Petronas · Kutei North
The 33-Month Bet
Eni and Petronas have set first gas at Kutei North 33 months after sanction. Of eleven large floating developments, two were faster, and Hormuz has made the date worth more.
Risk Series · 65 sources →
14 Oct 2026 · SE Asia · Iron Ore
Glencore · Radiant World · Deutsche Bank
Paid on 6 March, Re-dated 12 March
An iron ore invoice paid by Glencore was re-dated and sold to a bank within days. It sits at the centre of a three-country fight between Glencore, its former partner and their lenders.
Risk Series · 25 sources →
11 Sept 2026 · Europe · Oil & Gas
Saipem · Subsea7 · European Commission
The €300 Million Confession
Saipem and Subsea7 published a €300m annual synergy built on fleet optimisation and reduced bidding overlap. Twelve months later Brussels opened Phase II on the same industrial facts, then stopped the clock.
Risk Series · 28 sources →
01 Sept 2026 · Latin America · Oil
Venezuela · PDVSA · ExxonMobil
Sixty-Five Billion
Washington announced control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan crude. The deal's own revenue arithmetic sells eleven billion, and producing 65 billion inside the term would need 7.12m bpd sustained.
Risk Series · 16 sources →
07 Aug 2026 · West Africa · Manganese
Eramet · Weda Bay · Comilog
Eighty-Three Days
Eramet's strategy document could not survive its own results: €672m of losses in six quarters against €441m of equity.
Risk Series · 20 sources →
21 Jul 2026 · Latin America · Risk
Vale · Brumadinho
The $100 Billion Illusion of Control
Vale's disclosures certified 100% of its dams stable. One, rated 1.09 against a 1.5 benchmark, liquefied without warning: the confusion of documentation with control, priced in lives and market cap.
Risk Series · 54 sources →
Value-Chain Series →Make-or-Buy Series →

Price the risk before it prices you.

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