Sectors · Mining & metals
Mining strategy, from the pit to the price.
Capital allocation, make-or-buy and sovereign risk for miners, their investors and the states that host them, led by a principal who has run mine supply chains and a country strategy.
On film
From the rock to the market, on film.
7 min New feature film · Geology
Ground Truth.
Geology sets the limits of every mine and oil field. Capital and policy decide what happens inside them. Seven minutes on how the rock was made, and why it still sets the cost curve.
7 minutesHD filmSources on screen
Four findings
- Six intervals hold the source rocks for over 90% of the oil and gas found.
- About 200 times: copper ore against copper’s average in the crust.
- About 8% a year: oil decline with no new investment.
- 73% and 67%: DR Congo’s share of world cobalt, Indonesia’s of nickel.
Commodity briefings
Short executive briefings, one commodity each.
Pit to port
The mining value chain, link by link.
Principal’s record at this link
01 · Resource
Grade, continuity and the difference between a resource statement and a mine.
RecordSale of two exploration businesses, in Mali and Ghana; professional geology on the bench.
02 · Build
Capex, schedule, and whether to build, buy or contract the capacity.
03 · Operate
Contractors, equipment and the supply chain that keeps the mine running.
RecordProcurement and logistics for a mining contractor across five West and Southern African countries; Cat 777F trucks and D9 dozers moved from Tema to the Mako gold mine.
05 · Rail and port
The logistics chain to the ship, and its chokepoints.
RecordCountry strategy for Simandou, Africa’s largest integrated mining project.
06 · Market
Offtake, pricing, the benchmark and the counterparty.
07 · Host state
Fiscal terms, the licence and the state’s share.
RecordCountry Panel of Guinean elders; a CGE modelling programme designed for Guinea’s Ministry of Finance.
Every link draws on the same four practices. Mandates →
Field Notes
Ten Field Notes on mining & metals.
31 Oct 2026 · Africa · Aluminium
Mozal · Guinea · Indonesia · Zimbabwe · Ajaokuta
Mandates Without Megawatts
Governments from Conakry to Lilongwe are ordering miners to process at home. A smelter needs about 500 MW of firm power, and the record shows the decision that matters is who owns that power and the capital behind it.
Make-or-Buy Series · 91 sources →
26 Oct 2026 · China · Copper
Maike Metals · He Jinbi · Xiamen Xinda · ICBC
RMB67.8 Billion of Claims: The Fall of He Jinbi
Maike Metals handled a quarter of China's copper imports on a trading margin of about one per cent. Its founder has been sentenced to life, according to Bloomberg, and has appealed. The filings show who was paid, and who was handed trust units carried at zero.
Risk Series · 32 sources →
23 Oct 2026 · West Africa · Iron Ore
Simandou · Rio Tinto · Baowu · Guinea
The Fiscal Return Behind Guinea's $200 Billion Bet
Guinea's Simandou 2040 programme is costed at US$200 billion. The official fiscal model puts the state's revenue from Simandou at about US$20 billion over the same fifteen years, most of it after 2030.
Risk Series · 48 sources →
14 Oct 2026 · SE Asia · Iron Ore
Glencore · Radiant World · Deutsche Bank
Paid on 6 March, Re-dated 12 March
An iron ore invoice paid by Glencore was re-dated and sold to a bank within days. It sits at the centre of a three-country fight between Glencore, its former partner and their lenders.
Risk Series · 25 sources →
24 Sept 2026 · China · Iron Ore
China Mineral Resources Group · Platts · Simandou
Seven Trades
Beijing has spent four years and three supply embargoes fighting for control of the iron ore benchmark. It has won the reference, not a lower price, and the lever that will move the price is Simandou.
Value-Chain Series · 8 sources →
07 Aug 2026 · West Africa · Manganese
Eramet · Weda Bay · Comilog
Eighty-Three Days
Eramet's strategy document could not survive its own results: €672m of losses in six quarters against €441m of equity.
Risk Series · 20 sources →
27 Jul 2026 · SE Asia · Nickel
Indonesia · Tsingshan
6% to 60%. Control not included.
Indonesia rebuilt the world's nickel supply in a decade. It also broke the price, handed the margin to Chinese capital and coal, and built a machine the West's green rules now exclude. Owning a market is not controlling it.
Value-Chain Series · 20 sources →
21 Jul 2026 · Latin America · Risk
Vale · Brumadinho
The $100 Billion Illusion of Control
Vale's disclosures certified 100% of its dams stable. One, rated 1.09 against a 1.5 benchmark, liquefied without warning: the confusion of documentation with control, priced in lives and market cap.
Risk Series · 54 sources →
08 Jul 2026 · West Africa · Steel
Ajaokuta Steel · Nigeria
$8bn spent. Not a tonne of steel made.
Forty-seven years and more than $8bn after construction began, Ajaokuta has never lit its blast furnace. That record is the base rate every West African build case should price.
Make-or-Buy Series · 6 sources →
13 May 2026 · Latin America · Copper
BHP · Wheaton · Antamina
$4.3bn out the door. BHP read the cycle.
BHP sold its silver stream rather than defend it: a capital-allocation tell about a major pre-funding its dividend before a copper-heavy capex peak, a contested Samarco appeal, and a Chinese buyer consolidating its iron-ore book.
Value-Chain Series · 8 sources →